Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: What Do Turtles & Rates Have in Common?

June 30, 2025
So much I could lead with this week. Opal rolled in more crap, and this time it was on my watch. Wilson found more than 10 turtles on our hike in the woods yesterday. Young Cowen had his first action of the summer last night, but the highlight was that more than 10 players and coaches got tossed from the game. It was more like a hockey game than a baseball game.
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That said, I wanted to share a great experience I had yesterday in case you get the opportunity to do this. I was invited to participate in a mock trial at the county courthouse recently. Twenty-four rising seniors participate in a “Law Camp” and present and defend a case in front of a real judge and jury. It was an incredible experience. The kids were fantastic, and if these young people are our rising lawyers, our legal system is in good hands.

Pack the ’Pack Kicks Off

Before I touch on rates, a quick note that our Pack the ’Pack annual campaign begins on July 1. Our BCT Cares Foundation launched this initiative in 2019 to help support food-insecure children in our core markets and communities. Last year, we raised $90,000, so we’re setting the bar higher this year at $100,000. We’re very proud of this initiative, and we appreciate the support we receive from our clients and centers of influence. Look for more information next week, but I wanted you to be aware this is coming.

The First Rule of Rate Club…

From a market perspective, let me first say, “The first rule of rate club is we don’t talk about rate club” (Brad Pitt reference from the movie Fight Club). So, at the risk of jinxing ourselves, the mortgage market had another decent week, with most programs improving by an eighth to a quarter percent.

As noted last week, the Fed chose not to cut short-term rates a little over a week ago, and discussions remained focused on inflation, tariffs, the economy, and how these all interact. This week, several Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, spoke further on these topics. Many were more “dovish” in their commentary, with the consensus being that tariffs have not yet impacted inflation. If this trend continues in the near term, we could see short-term rates come down.

As discussed before, short-term rates don’t directly impact mortgage rates, but these market-friendly comments are starting to help with long-term rates now. More to come as additional economic data is released in the coming weeks.

Final Thought

Enjoy a great week, and as always, if we can assist in any way, please don’t hesitate to call.

-Steve-

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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