Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Time Flies at Casa de Cowen and Notes From the Market

January 19, 2026
Time flies. Twenty-two years ago this past Sunday, my first-born, Madison “Monk” Cowen, was born. A year ago today, Cin and I were heading to Arlington to have breakfast with some friends, and her first contraction happened on that trip.
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Funny story about that. At the time, I had been brewing my own beer for a few years and had progressed beyond simply following a recipe. The ingredients for a new batch had arrived a day or two earlier, and all I could think about was getting it brewed before the little person showed up. It was cold, much like it is now, and while Cin relaxed in the family room of our townhouse, which was connected to the kitchen, I brewed the batch.

If you have never smelled that process, I would compare it to the stale beer smell of a bar the day after a big night. Cin was not happy with me that day. But I got it done, and it turned out great.

Product and Lending Notes*

Quick story for you on a purchase our team closed this week. I have mentioned before that we offer several non-QM, or non-qualified mortgage, programs, including DSCR loans and bank statement loans. Some industry analysts suggest these programs could make up roughly 8 percent of total volume this year.

This week, we closed a purchase with a $729,000 sales price for a self-employed borrower who showed no income from a tax return perspective and approximately $29,000 in income based on business bank statements. We offer both 12-month and 24-month bank statement options. Happy to talk more about these programs if you have self-employed borrowers who may benefit.

Market Notes

Mortgage rates remain in a tight range, although many programs are fractionally higher this week than last. The market continues to navigate both headwinds and tailwinds.

The notable tailwind is the directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. That represents demand for the bonds that directly impact mortgage rates. The headwinds remain elevated inflation, a resilient labor market, and continued government spending, as the Treasury issues bonds to pay the bills, adding supply to the market.

The positive is that mortgage rates have stayed within roughly 0.125 to 0.25 percent of current levels since September, about five months now. That is the longest stretch of relative stability we have seen in some time, particularly in this rate cycle.

Why are stable rates important? I am glad you asked. Buyers want certainty around cost. Everyone wants lower rates and lower payments, but if my 30 years in this business has taught me anything, stable rates are good for the purchase market.

Looking Ahead**

Enjoy a chilly week and some good football. As always, we are around and available, so do not hesitate to reach out with any mortgage related needs. Best wishes.

-Steve-

*All loans, including investment property and DSCR loans, are subject to credit approval and program guidelines. Rates, terms, and availability are subject to change without notice.

**All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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