Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Pre-FOMC Week and a Question of Modern Etiquette

December 8, 2025
So, I have a question this week more so than a story about the chaos that surrounds my life. I finally went to get a haircut on Thursday. My move is generally to wait and wait until I can’t take it anymore, and this cycle was no different. I made my appointment and went in at 4:30 p.m.
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There was someone in a chair across the room getting their haircut as well. This person was on the phone with what was clearly a friend. It wasn’t work. It wasn’t a Zoom meeting or anything of the sort. I was in and out in about 25 minutes, and I kid you not, they were on the phone the entire time.

Seems to me that is a social faux pas, is it not? First, only I need to be hearing any conversations with my friends. Secondarily, it was mildly annoying. Maybe more than mildly… enough so that I am still talking about it. Thoughts?

Pre-FOMC Market Notes

Pretty typical pre-FOMC (FED) meeting week. The market was stable for the first few days with some minor upward pressure toward the end of the week. Some programs are fractionally higher than last week, and others are holding steady.

So, what is next that could influence the market? I am glad you asked.

This coming week we have a FED meeting, where a decision will be made about short-term rates. This meeting is interesting for a couple of reasons.

First, the market has priced in an 85 percent chance of a short-term cut. Why is that interesting? Because that percentage is typically 95 percent or more, so right now, 15 percent of the market would be surprised by a cut.

Secondarily, this is one of four meetings annually where the FED governors provide their “Dot Plot,” or their expectations for short-term rates going forward. That will provide some clues as to what they are looking ahead to next year and could give the market something to chew on. Buckle up for an interesting week.

Looking Ahead*

We still have plenty of time to purchase or refinance a home by the end of the year. Please feel free to reach out over the weekend if you have any mortgage related questions or needs or if you need a preapproval. Always happy to help.

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines. Rates, terms, and availability are subject to change without notice. Eligibility requirements vary by program and location. This communication is for informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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