Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Nesting Mode and Big Week Ahead for Rates

July 28, 2025
It was quiet this past week here. The drama was muted for a change. Opal didn’t roll in anything foul and require a bath. Wilson hunted quietly from his perch on the back of the living room couch.
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Now, all that said, the nesting and pressure is starting to build for Cindy Cowen. The kids head back to school in a few weeks. Bren will likely leave mid-month, and Madison a week later. And here’s where it gets fun: Bren is living off campus this year, so of course he needs things for the apartment.

Here’s the rub. We’ve never seen the place. No idea about the size, what he needs, or what will even fit. Absolutely no clue.

So, I suggested maybe we wait until we get there, figure it out, and then grab what he needs. You would have thought I burned the house down. I can already see it coming—daily stress over what he might need, impulse buying of stuff he won’t use, and then everything sits in my dining room until someone (likely me) returns it all. 😊

I’ve seen this movie many times.

Market Recap: Quiet Week, Steady Rates

Pretty quiet in the markets this week too. From an economic news perspective, there wasn’t much to chew on. This is one of the slower weeks on the calendar. We saw a few minor ups and downs based on daily headlines, but nothing substantial.

Mortgage rates across all programs remained exactly where they’ve been, sitting in a very tight trading range. That’s actually a positive. Stability tends to help move buyers off the fence, giving them a little more certainty when it comes to monthly housing costs.

We’ve continued to see increased conversations with buyers who are feeling more confident due to steady rates and the fact that inventory has improved from historic lows. That seems to bode well for a solid third quarter.

Looking Ahead: A Big Week for Mortgage Watchers*

So, what’s next? This coming week is a big one and could give us important clues about near-term trends.

On Wednesday at 2 p.m., the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) wraps up its meeting and will announce their decision on short-term interest rates. There’s virtually no chance they cut rates at this time, but the market will be watching the policy statement closely for hints. Are cuts being considered? What data are they watching?

Then on Friday, we get the July employment data, with the non-farm payroll report released at 8:30 a.m. This one will be watched closely. One of the Fed’s two mandates is full employment, so many believe it will take weaker job numbers (fewer jobs created or higher unemployment) for the Fed to seriously consider cutting short-term rates.

We’ll see how it plays out. But for rate-watchers and mortgage market freaks like me, this is a key week.

*This communication is for informational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend by Potomac Bank Residential Lending. All loans are subject to approval.

Final Thought

Enjoy your week. It’s going to be a hot one, so stay cool and consider indoor activities. As always, feel free to reach out with any mortgage-related questions or needs. I’m always available and always happy to help.

-Steve-

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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