Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Cold Walks, Good Television, and a Steady Market

January 26, 2026
Good Morning from Frigid Leesburg, Virginia. The dogs, as usual, simply do not care about the cold and still require a walk. I love the dogs, don’t get me wrong, but some days it feels like staying inside should be an option.
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Before jumping into the market update, I have a Netflix recommendation. I am a documentary guy. I like history. I like learning about real-life things. I am not much for drama or suspense. That said, two Sundays ago, as the snow was coming down, Cin said she wanted to watch His and Hers. Supposedly very good.

I think it is six or seven episodes and can easily be binged in a day. Let me just say, it was pretty darn good. I tried to get up a couple of times, and it kept pulling me back in. I cannot say much more, but it is a very good watch.

Market Notes

Despite it being FED week, the market was relatively stable. A few programs ended the week with rates fractionally lower than the prior week, but most remained unchanged. We continue to trade within a tight range, which is typically a positive for homebuyers and overall activity, especially for first-time buyers.

There was certainly anticipation heading into last Wednesday’s Fed decision. The market fully expected no cut in short-term rates, but there was some uncertainty around the commentary and what Chairman Powell might say. In the end, there were no real changes to tone. The Fed is going to wait for more data before making any additional moves.

As a result, we will continue to take things week by week, with the market reacting to incoming data. Slower job growth and lower inflation remain the keys to meaningful mortgage rate improvement from here.

Looking Ahead*

We will get some manufacturing data this week, but the big-ticket item will be Friday’s January employment report. There could be some volatility leading up to that as the market positions itself around the data.

If you have clients ratifying contracts over the week, I would recommend locking ahead of that report. As a reminder, we do offer float-down options on our programs. If a client locks their rate and the market improves notably, we can renegotiate that rate for them.

Best wishes for a nice, but cold, weekend. Always happy to help with any mortgage related questions or needs.

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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