Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Burpees, Buyer Conversations, and a Market Full of Surprises

May 12, 2026
Greetings from Casa de Cowen. Ten years ago this past weekend, I made the regrettable decision to do one burpee for every year I had been alive, with the goal of finishing in 10 minutes or less. I do not remember what random city I was in with Brendan for baseball, but I do remember having an adult beverage last Friday night and getting bullied into doing it.
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“You got bullied into that courtroom, Danny. You got bullied by the memory of a dead lawyer.” A little A Few Good Men reference for you.

Well, I did it. It was miserable, but I finished in under 10 minutes.

Fast forward 10 years. I am now 10 years older and apparently not any wiser because I am about to do it again. My goal this year, for a variety of reasons, is to beat my best time of 8:14.

If you do not receive my weekly email this weekend, you will know how this story ended.

A Quick Buyer Conversation

Had a great conversation last week with a first-time homebuyer. The conversation started with, “I do not want to pay mortgage insurance.”

That is a pretty common theme.

As we talked more, it became clear the client’s parents had purchased a home in the early 2000s, before the credit crisis of 2007 and 2008. Back then, mortgage insurance was expensive, and it was easy to structure two loans to avoid it.

Today’s lending environment is very different.

Now, the interest rate on a first mortgage is often higher when there is a second mortgage involved, which was not typically the case back then. In addition, mortgage insurance is often far more affordable today for well-qualified buyers.

The reality was not that the client absolutely did not want mortgage insurance. They simply did not understand the cost-benefit tradeoff between putting less money down and paying mortgage insurance.

One of our team’s biggest value propositions is taking the time to educate clients and provide options so they can make informed decisions that fit their financial goals.

Market Notes

The market continues to plague me. Everything I thought I knew, or at least most of what I thought I knew, seems to be gone.

In more than 30 years of following the market closely, I have never seen one that largely ignores economic data the way this one has.

Last Friday’s employment numbers came in better than expected. Normally, strong economic news pushes mortgage rates higher. Yet there was very little meaningful reaction.

Subject to change without notice, the market appears to be almost entirely focused on the conflict involving Iran.

Earlier in the week, rates moved to one-month highs as tensions appeared to escalate. Then last Wednesday, news broke that a proposal to end the conflict had been made, and the market settled back down.

Mortgage rates ultimately ended the week about where they started. That is the good news.

The bad news is we have seen these starts and stops for the better part of ten weeks. Unless or until there is a meaningful agreement, it will likely remain difficult for the market to improve meaningfully.

Looking Ahead*

On the data front, we will get inflation reports today and tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how higher oil prices are impacting both wholesale and consumer inflation. It will also be interesting to see whether the market reacts one way or the other.

Stay tuned.

Hope you had a great Mother’s Day weekend. Do not hesitate to call with any mortgage related questions or needs.

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc., was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $976 million as of March 31, 2026. The Bank conducts operations through its nine-branch network and one loan production office serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top 200 Community Banks” and “Best Banks to Work For”, the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award, and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award. 

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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