The curse, you ask? I got home and was completely spun up from the two-hour drive. I poured a glass of whiskey and turned on the TV. This is where things went bad quickly.
The second round of The Players at Sawgrass was on. Well, you cannot not watch golf. Then I did some scrolling and saw that Top Gun: Maverick was on, arguably one of the top three sequels ever, right up there with John Wick Chapter 2 and The Godfather II. So naturally I had to watch that.
Midnight rolls around and I know I should go to bed. But I check the guide one more time and see Ford v Ferrari and Roadhouse are on. Next thing I know it is 2:00 a.m. and I am still up. Brutal. Yesterday ended up being a long day.
I know better than to hit the guide button on the remote, but I refuse to learn.
Market Notes
The market continues to be choppy, and that is unlikely to change in the near term.
Oil prices are certainly part of the story, but it goes deeper than that. The uncertainty surrounding the timeline of the conflict with Iran, along with potential supply chain disruptions tied to that conflict, is having a notable impact on mortgage rates and the bond market.
Rates are roughly 0.375 percent higher than the lows we saw at the end of February. When uncertainty exists in the market, traders typically choose the path of least resistance, and sellers tend to outnumber buyers. That dynamic generally pushes rates higher.
Looking Ahead*
So what happens next?
For interest rates to move lower, we will likely need to see the conflict come to an end and some additional clarity around inflation. Oil prices have already taken a significant hit, and supply chains have been disrupted enough that the market expects those costs will eventually show up in consumer prices.
Buyers of fixed income assets such as mortgage-backed securities will likely remain cautious until inflation data confirms things are moving in the right direction. That could take several months.
This does not mean rates cannot turn the corner in the meantime, but it may take a little longer than we would all like.
In the meantime, I strongly recommend advising your buyers to lock when they have the opportunity. If their current lender does not offer a float-down option, I am always happy to have a conversation with them. Locking protects clients from further rate increases, while a float-down option allows them to benefit if the market improves.
Enjoy a wonderful week, and as always, feel free to call if you need assistance with a quick preapproval or have any mortgage related questions.
-Steve-
*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.