Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Opal, the Beaver, and a Little Relief for Mortgage Rates

October 26, 2026
Greetings from casa de Cowen, I do love the fall and this weather. Had the dogs out for their hike in the woods at sunrise over the weekend. The negative is that Opal is kind of golden in color, and so are the leaves on the ground. Occasionally, you catch a blur and figure out where she is.
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We jumped a couple of foxes and the dreaded beaver.

Opal absolutely loves her beaver friend. He, on the other hand, is not a fan.

Ever heard a beaver slap its tail on the water?

That’ll wake you up in the morning.

Product and Lending Notes*

Quick note on a special we’re running for loans closing now through the end of the year.

We’re offering a 0.5% first-year buydown at no cost to the client, effective now. If we’re locking in a rate of 6.99%, the rate for the borrower in year one will be 6.49%.

We’ll absorb the cost of that buydown for the client.

Any additional seller concession can be used for additional permanent or temporary buydowns or toward closing costs.

This is available only on traditional secondary-market programs, such as VA or conventional loans. We’re unable to offer this for our portfolio offerings.

Please feel free to reach out with any questions.

Market Notes

I got a call from an agent late last week, and the call began with, “I heard rates were plummeting.”

I saw some of this narrative as well, and although I wish that were the case, unfortunately, not exactly.

The 10-year Treasury note is generally the industry benchmark for interest rates. That said, movement in the 10-year Treasury does not translate directly into the same movement in mortgage interest rates.

After hitting close to a 20-year high a couple of weeks ago at 5.34%, the 10-year note yield has now fallen to just below 5.00%.

This is a remarkable move in a couple of weeks.

Why?

The main factor is directly tied to tech stocks weakening. Money has flowed out of tech stocks and into fixed-income assets like Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.

Mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in a month and generally about 0.125% lower than the previous week.

The real question the market is asking is whether this weakness will flow into the economy. Is growth in tech and AI spending slowing, and how will that impact the overall economy?

Still a lot to unravel in the coming weeks.

Looking Ahead

This week, we have a Fed meeting.

The market has no expectation of a short-term rate hike this time around. Mortgage rates will be influenced by the commentary that follows the announcement.

If there’s discussion about potential economic weakness, the trend toward lower rates could continue. If the commentary remains focused on inflationary pressures, we could see some weakness in the recent rally.

We will see and let you know next week.

Hope everyone enjoyed a wonderful fall weekend and some sunshine.

As always, please feel free to reach out with any mortgage-related needs or questions.

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc. (OTCID:PTBS), was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $981 million as of June 30, 2026.  The Bank conducts operations through its ten-branch network and one loan production offices serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top Performing Banks” (under $2 billion in assets) and “Best Banks to Work For”, as well as the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award.  

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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