Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Loose Lug Nuts and a Market Holding Its Ground

October 5, 2026
Greetings from Casa de Cowen. Another embarrassing parent moment this past week. Just when you think you have raised good human beings and your mental health is clicking on all cylinders, something like this happens and you are reminded that, in some ways, you have failed.
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Brendan’s car needed emissions testing, so a few weeks ago we swapped cars and I had his at home for a week. Shortly after he got it back, he mentioned there was some noise up front and it “doesn’t sound good.”

Keep in mind, this is a 2013 Nissan Sentra with a fair number of miles… purposely, by the way, because his driving skills leave much to be desired.

Anyway, a couple of years ago he had a situation where some lug nuts were coming loose. Don’t know why or how, but it happened. So, I reminded him of that and asked him to check.

“Oh yeah, Dad, that’s not it.”

The car goes into the shop recently and, shocker, the technician calls to tell me the lug nuts on the front driver’s side wheel were loose and needed to be tightened.

Bren’s response… “Oh shoot!”

The positive is that it wasn’t a huge repair. The negative? Shouldn’t a 21-year-old be able to check and determine if the lug nuts are loose?

That’s a rhetorical question, of course. 😊

Pack the ’Pack

A quick note to thank everyone who helped support our Pack the ’Pack campaign. We raised a record $120,000 for our local nonprofit partners helping fight food insecurity for local kids.

We appreciate everyone who helped support this fantastic cause.

Market Notes

Not surprisingly, it was another interesting week for the fixed-income markets, including mortgage interest rates.

Unfortunately, we didn’t see any notable relief from the recent pattern. The positive, I suppose, is that rates ended the week at similar levels to where they started.

We bounced off some higher yields early in the week and saw some buying, which helped bring yields back down. Oil prices came down a bit, and concerns surrounding the French fiscal situation also helped pave the way for some improvement.

As mentioned last week, the market was going to be watching Friday’s employment data closely.

The headline number for jobs created came in well below forecasts, and early on, it looked like we were going to have a solid day of improvement.

That optimism faded quickly.

By midday, we were seeing selling pressure and higher rates.

Why? I’m glad you asked.

In short, the Fed has recently been paying close attention to the unemployment rate, not just the number of jobs being created. The unemployment rate rose only slightly, and other underlying details in the report suggested the labor market may not have weakened as much as the headline jobs number initially indicated.

Bottom line, the report wasn’t as weak as it first appeared.

There isn’t a lot on tap next week from an economic-data perspective, so oil prices will likely remain one of the factors influencing the market. The following week, we’ll get our September inflation readings.

For now, it looks like we may be hanging around this range in the near term.

Looking Ahead*

Enjoy a great week.

My mother-in-law is in town, and there are only so many times we can discuss the weather in Michigan.

I’m happy to assist with any mortgage-related questions or needs. 😊

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc. (OTCID:PTBS), was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $981 million as of June 30, 2026.  The Bank conducts operations through its ten-branch network and one loan production offices serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top Performing Banks” (under $2 billion in assets) and “Best Banks to Work For”, as well as the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award.  

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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