Cowen's Corner-Mortgage Market Update: Jeep Waves and a Market Looking for Direction

September 21, 2026
Greetings from Casa de Cowen. Early start for us this morning. Madison and Pete have a schooling show (practice show), so the girls headed out early.
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As I was enjoying my coffee while Wilson drooled on my leg begging for breakfast, something occurred to me.

The Jeep wave is silly and stressful.

How come Jeeps have a wave? Why just Jeeps?

Anyway, Cindy’s dream car is, and always has been, a Jeep. We have had a few over the years, but she wanted a particular color, a hardtop, and nothing jacked up or too spicy. Just a basic Jeep.

She found one a couple of months ago, and she absolutely loves it. Like schoolgirl-giddy loves it.

Until recently, no one else was allowed to drive it. She vacuums it a few times a week. It is a whole thing.

Last night, we were running errands (code for Nordstrom Rack… third time this week… don’t ask), and I was driving.

I missed multiple Jeep waves and was reprimanded a few times.

I’m not really paying attention to who’s driving toward me. Now I’m supposed to identify every Jeep and wave at the right moment?

Too much pressure.

It’s dumb!!!

Product and Lending Notes*

Quick reminder that we have a special, limited bucket of funds available through our 5/5 ARM program. We’re using this offering to help create some affordability in this challenging market.

The program is available for conforming, high-balance in eligible markets, and jumbo loan amounts. I’ve included the rates on my rate sheet.

The rate is fixed for the first five years and then adjusts, remaining fixed for another five years. Unlike a traditional ARM that may adjust annually after its initial fixed period, this program adjusts in five-year increments.

The offering is limited, so please feel free to call with any questions about the program.

Market Notes

Not a lot of surprises this week relative to mortgage rates and the market.

Of course, much of the media coverage surrounding Wednesday’s Fed announcement created some confusion about what the decision meant for mortgage rates.

The important distinction is that the Fed’s short-term policy rate and long-term mortgage rates are not the same thing. Mortgage rates are influenced by a broader set of factors, including inflation expectations, bond yields, and what investors anticipate the Fed will do next.

The market had largely anticipated Wednesday’s decision, and for the most part, mortgage rates are unchanged from last week.

It’s probably a little too soon to know exactly where we are headed.

Higher oil prices have undoubtedly contributed to inflation concerns. Unless or until they come down, it will likely be challenging for mortgage rates to improve meaningfully.

Chairman Warsh was brief with his comments and Q&A following the announcement. He described the Fed’s action as “removing some accommodation,” language that could signal additional policy adjustments ahead.

Not much to chew on this coming week relative to economic data, so oil prices will likely remain a major influence on rates.

It would be nice to see things settle down heading into the fall.

We will see.

Looking Ahead

Enjoy a beautiful week. My team and I are available and happy to assist should you have any mortgage-related questions or needs.

-Steve-

*All loans are subject to credit approval and program guidelines.

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About the Company

Potomac Bank, a wholly owned subsidiary of Potomac Bancshares, Inc. (OTCID:PTBS), was founded in 1871 as Bank of Charles Town and renamed Potomac Bank on November 3, 2025. The Company’s total assets were $981 million as of June 30, 2026.  The Bank conducts operations through its ten-branch network and one loan production offices serving the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, Washington County, Maryland, and Northern Virginia. The Bank offers comprehensive financial solutions through its consumer and commercial banking divisions, Trust, Wealth, and BCT Investments divisions, and its Residential Lending mortgage division. The Bank is also proud to serve its communities as a Small Business Administration (SBA) Preferred Lender. Over the past several years, the Bank has received numerous awards and recognitions, including American Banker’s “Top Performing Banks” (under $2 billion in assets) and “Best Banks to Work For”, as well as the Journal-News “Best of the Best” award and the LoudounNow “Loudoun’s Favorite” award.  

The Company's shares are quoted on the OTCID marketplace under the symbol "PTBS." For more information about the Bank, please visit our website at www.potomac.bank.

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